Weekly Market Analysis
Twin Cities Market Update — September 28, 2026
This real estate market update for the Minneapolis-St. Paul (Twin Cities) area is based on the most recent data as of September 28, 2026.
The Twin Cities housing market is currently characterized by a "7-year high" in inventory, providing buyers with more options than they have seen in nearly a decade. However, high mortgage rates and sticky home prices continue to define the landscape for both buyers and sellers.
1. Median Home Prices & Year-Over-Year Trends
Home prices in the Twin Cities have remained resilient despite higher borrowing costs, though the rate of appreciation has moderated compared to previous years.
- Twin Cities Metro: The median sales price for the 13-county metro area is approximately $405,000, representing a modest 1.3% increase year-over-year.
- Minneapolis: The market remains more expensive and competitive, with a median home price of roughly $375,000, an increase of 5.6% over the previous year.
- St. Paul: St. Paul offers a more affordable entry point with a median price of approximately $315,000. While St. Paul’s prices have historically trailed Minneapolis, they have shown steady growth, particularly in multi-unit properties where prices rose while Minneapolis remained relatively flat.
2. Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)
Inventory levels have reached a significant milestone, hitting a 7-year high across the state and metro.
- Months of Supply: The Twin Cities metro currently sits at 3.0 months of supply, up 7.1% from last year. While this remains technically a "seller's market" (a balanced market is typically 5–6 months), it represents a major shift toward buyer leverage.
- City Dynamics:
- Minneapolis continues to have tighter inventory, often dipping as low as 1.4 months in popular neighborhoods.
- St. Paul and the surrounding suburbs have seen a larger influx of new listings, with new listings up 8.2% year-over-year in the metro overall.
3. Mortgage Interest Rate Trends
Mortgage rates have not yet delivered the significant relief many anticipated for late 2026.
- Current Rate: The national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at approximately 7.30% APR.
- Trend: While rates dipped into the low 6% range earlier in the year, they have trended back upward this fall. Buyers are increasingly factoring "rate-lock" effects into their decisions, and many sellers are hesitant to trade their current 3–4% rates for today's levels.
4. Strategic Advice for Buyers and Sellers
For Buyers:
- Exercise Your Leverage: With inventory at a 7-year high, you have more room to negotiate than in previous years. We are seeing a rise in seller concessions, with many sellers paying for rate buy-downs or closing costs to move properties.
- The Inspection is Back: Unlike the 2021–2022 frenzy, most buyers are now successfully including inspection contingencies and requesting repairs without losing the home to a competing offer.
For Sellers:
- Don't Wait for Spring: History shows the "spring bump" is often offset by the costs of carrying a home for six more months and the risk of even more competition as inventory climbs. Listing this fall may be more advantageous before the winter slowdown.
- Price it Right: Homes are sitting on the market longer (averaging 45 days, up from 42 last year). Overpricing in this market can lead to your listing becoming "stale," forcing deeper price cuts later.
Rental Market Note: St. Paul’s Unique Position
The St. Paul rental market remains strong in terms of occupancy, with average rents around $1,547 (up 2.34% year-over-year). However, the market is facing a significant "development chill" due to the city's 3% rent stabilization ordinance. While Minneapolis continues to permit thousands of new units, St. Paul saw building permits for multifamily housing plummet to just 404 units in 2024, a trend that has continued into 2026. This lack of new supply is keeping occupancy high for existing landlords but potentially limiting long-term growth for the city compared to its "Twin" across the river.